Regrettably, due to unforeseen circumstances, I faced challenges creating post-game content for the Buffalo Bills’ Divisional Round defeat to the Kansas City Chiefs. As the game is now in the past, it’s time to shift focus to season recaps, quirky offseason content, and before we know it, 2024 NFL season previews. My first attempt at a 2023 season recap centers around the peculiar deep-middle passing game of the Buffalo Bills.
Dalton Kincaid’s Touchdown
Let’s begin with the Bills’ top highlight of the season in this category – the 29-yard touchdown pass to Dalton Kincaid during NFL Super Wild Card Weekend against the Pittsburgh Steelers. It’s essential to note that the NFL defines a “deep pass” as any throw that travels 20 or more air yards. This is important because the league intentionally filters out passes where the intent was not to throw deep, but yards after the catch inflated the final result.
Josh Allen threw the ball 25 yards in the air, and Dalton Kincaid ran four yards after the catch to score the touchdown. However, the question remains, why am I using this pass as the season’s stand-in?
The answer is simple – it was the only completed deep-middle pass all season.
Yes, you read that right. The Buffalo Bills only completed one throw to the deep-middle portion of the field all year. To illustrate this point, let’s take a look at the play-direction charts provided by the NFL. I’ll use a slider image so you can compare the regular and postseason images at your leisure.
I discovered this anomaly late in the regular season and decided to monitor it. Although these passes are low-percentage for most teams, completing none is the epitome of low percentage.
To put things into perspective, the Detroit Lions and Houston Texans completed 66.67% or more of their deep-middle passes. The Miami Dolphins led the league with a completion percentage of 70.59%. You may assume that the Dolphins had fewer attempts, but they were similar to the Bills, with 16 and 17 attempts, respectively. The Texans, on the other hand, thrived on these passes, throwing 33 attempts.
The Atlanta Falcons completed only 22.22% of their deep-middle passes, ranking them as the second-worst team in the league. Despite this, they still managed to complete four of these passes during the regular season. While these plays are generally low-percentage across the league, they were a particular weakness for the Buffalo Bills. However, the Bills’ 21st ranking in attempts falls within the average range according to the “rule of four.” The Green Bay Packers had the most attempts with 34 (completing about half), while the Los Angeles Chargers attempted only five and completed three.
The close nature of NFL games means that one or two plays can have a significant impact on the outcome. Although the Bills lost more games than desired, none were by more than six points. The question remains whether a deep-middle pass could have changed their fortunes. Examining their losses, it becomes clear that attempts were made in some games, but not in others. In their overtime loss to the New York Jets in Week 1, Buffalo did not attempt any deep-middle passes. The same was true in Week 5 against the Jacksonville Jaguars in London. In a Week 7 loss to the New England Patriots, the Bills attempted a deep-middle shot in the third quarter, but it resulted in no points and consumed valuable time. Against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 9, a second-quarter shot to wide receiver Deonte Harty could have changed the game’s tone. The Bills did not attempt any deep passes against the Denver Broncos in Week 10. In Week 12 against the Philadelphia Eagles, a missed deep pass in the second quarter on third down could have led to another score before halftime. Finally, in the Divisional Round against the Kansas City Chiefs, two attempts were made. The first did not have a significant impact, but the second was a missed touchdown that could have given the Chiefs more time to work with. While it is impossible to know for sure whether a deep-middle pass could have changed the outcome of these games, it is clear that it would have been interesting to see the Bills try.
