According to Adam Schefter of ESPN, the upcoming free-agent running back class is expected to be one of the most loaded in recent memory. Schefter announced on Monday that none of the eligible running backs will receive the franchise tag, setting up a historic free agent class. Notable players such as Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, Tony Pollard, and Austin Ekeler will all become available when free agency opens in March. While the position pool is filled with veteran talent, the question remains whether or not the Carolina Panthers should sign one of these veterans.
However, the answer is a resounding no. In today’s NFL, successful teams do not invest significant capital in the running back position, unless they have a standout player like Christian McCaffrey. The Kansas City Chiefs, who have won back-to-back Super Bowls, spent less than 2% of their cap space on the running back position in both seasons. Other successful teams such as the 2021 Rams, 2020 Buccaneers, and 2019 Chiefs spent less than 2.5% of their money on running backs. Paying veteran running backs is not a winning formula. The market inefficiency when it comes to running backs is to draft one, over-work them on their rookie contract, and let them hit the open market for a different team to overpay them and receive less value for their money. The only scenario where paying a veteran running back the kind of contract that a Barkley, Jacobs, or Pollard would demand is if the team is one piece away from reaching the Super Bowl, like Christian McCaffrey and the 49ers.
Furthermore, the Panthers find themselves in a familiar position, having faced a similar situation just a year ago. Despite paying top dollar for Miles Sanders, a seasoned running back, he ultimately lost his starting position to rookie draft pick Chuba Hubbard. While it’s evident that Carolina must bolster their offensive talent to support Bryce Young, the 2023 team struggled with their running game at times. However, it would be unwise to overspend on a temporary solution for an offense that requires more than a quick fix. Instead, the Panthers should focus on acquiring young, cost-effective talent that will contribute to future victories when the team anticipates being more competitive in 2025 or 2026. This approach will prevent the team from incurring another burdensome contract for a position that is prone to aging poorly.
