Dalton Kincaid, a rookie tight end for the Buffalo Bills, had a fantastic debut season in the NFL, but the organisation will need him to improve even more in 2024.
Many jaded fans will respond with a “ho-hum” since they had high expectations for the first-round pick or are drawing comparisons to fellow rookie tight end Sam LaPorta of the Detroit Lions, who had an incredible season. However, in many ways, Kincaid is already a top-10 tight end in the league. But we must avoid making the mistake of already taking Kincaid for granted. Here’s a brief glance at some PFF numbers that show off how good Kincaid was throughout his first campaign:
Kincaid had 73 receptions, which tied him for seventh among tight ends in the NFL. He was targeted 90 times, ranking eighth in that category. His Drop Rate of 3.9% was 18th among TEs with at least 20% of targets, and even though LaPorta had a better percentage at 7.5%, Kincaid had more targets. He had 312 Yards After the Catch, placing him 11th, with the players ahead of him averaging more targets. Against zone coverage, Kincaid’s Yards Per Route Run ranked seventh at 1.88. There are clear indications from Kincaid’s stats and performance on tape that suggest he can handle a bigger workload, which is promising. With several receivers leaving the Bills in free agency, there’s a significant percentage of targets to be filled. While new additions like Curtis Samuel and Keon Coleman, along with the expected improvement of Khalil Shakir, will help, many expect Kincaid to become one of the top five tight ends in targets and receptions, including this author.
Despite the towering success of Kincaid, there are areas where the Bills and their fans would like to see improvement. A significant portion of the team’s targets and passing first downs vanished, indicating a decline in explosive plays in 2023. While the Bills remain a formidable offense with Allen at the helm, there seems to be a shift towards prioritizing efficiency. This situation puts pressure on Kincaid to contribute more towards sustaining drives. Looking at Kincaid’s first down efficiency compared to other top tight ends in 2023, there is clear potential for growth. Various factors, such as coaching changes, rookie challenges, and playing alongside established stars, may have hindered his performance. The following chart displays the top tight ends in terms of first downs, showcasing their targets and first downs per target.
