The Buffalo Bills, led by general manager Brandon Beane, have one of the league’s most dangerous passing attacks since Josh Allen’s breakout in year two. However, Allen’s success and Diggs’ arrival are closely linked, so now that the duo has parted ways, Allen and the Bills offence are searching for other ways to maintain their offensive potency. While they can’t replace star wide receiver Stefon Diggs, they can try to replicate him overall.
The visual analysis demonstrates that Allen throws the ball downfield more frequently than most quarterbacks, a notion supported by statistical data. His average target depth over the last three seasons consistently ranks among the top in the NFL. However, with a lack of a star receiver who excels in getting open deep downfield, the Bills must change their offensive approach. This adjustment mirrors what happened to Mahomes when the Chiefs traded Tyreek Hill, now requiring Allen to adapt.
To fill this void, the Bills are likely to turn to second-year tight end Dalton Kincaid in deep passing situations. Kincaid functions as a hybrid tight end/slot receiver, often lining up in the slot more than any other tight end last season. His average target depth was notably shallow, indicating his focus on working shorter routes in the slot. Despite his smaller size, Kincaid’s athleticism differentiates him from most tight ends, with his agility creating separation both before and after catching the ball. Initially drafted to become a Kelce-like target for Allen, Kincaid now has a prime opportunity to become the Bills’ top receiving option.
Keep an eye on Khalil Shakir, a fifth-round pick who has surpassed expectations and is poised for a breakout year. After a productive sophomore season with a focus on short receptions and yards after the catch, Shakir’s ability to gain significant yards post-reception ranks highly among all players. With Diggs no longer in the lineup, Shakir is expected to see increased playing time and targets.
While players like James Cook and new addition Curtis Samuel contribute to the short-to-intermediate passing game, they offer more versatility and shouldn’t be pigeonholed into just one category.
No sports car owner desires to drive their vehicle like a minivan, just as no one employing Josh Allen wishes to transform him into a conservative passer. Although the average pass distance may be shorter in 2024, Allen and the Bills will preserve some of their traditional style. A notable new addition to Buffalo’s passing game is 6’4″ rookie Keon Coleman, who brings size and downfield speed to the receiver corps. While Coleman may need time to develop, he is expected to make an immediate impact and potentially fill the void left by Diggs at the X-receiver position.
