Notre Dame football holds an 8-1 record with three games remaining in the 2024 season. Their last home game will be this Saturday afternoon against Virginia, coinciding with senior day.
The Fighting Irish are clearly aiming for the College Football Playoff, and fans are hopeful the team can finish strong to secure a top-eight seed, which would guarantee a home playoff game in the first round.
But is that truly the best outcome for Notre Dame?
As of the latest College Football Playoff rankings released on Tuesday, Notre Dame has moved up to No. 8. The format of the playoffs awards the top four ranked conference champions with the first four seeds, placing Notre Dame as the ninth seed based on current standings.
If the playoffs were determined today, Notre Dame’s path would look like this:
– First Round: at No. 8 Tennessee
– Second Round: vs. No. 1 Oregon
– Semi-Final: Against either No. 4 Miami, No. 5 Ohio State, or No. 12 Boise State
– National Championship: Facing one of No. 2 Texas, No. 3 BYU, No. 6 Penn State, No. 7 Indiana, No. 10 Alabama, or No. 11 Ole Miss.
If Notre Dame wins its next three games and receives some assistance, they could secure a home playoff game. This could happen if Georgia and Ohio State win against Tennessee and Indiana, respectively, allowing Notre Dame to potentially elevate to the seventh or eighth seed.
While this would guarantee a home game, it raises the question of whether it’s the best scenario for Notre Dame to advance further in the playoffs, possibly to the national championship game. While facing a team like Indiana or Tennessee at home may seem easier, the challenge significantly increases in the second round if Notre Dame remains in the 8 vs. 9 or 7 vs. 10 matchup.
After reviewing various College Football Playoff and bowl projections, opinions were divided about Notre Dame’s potential for a home playoff game. Notably, one analyst forecasted an Iowa State matchup in the Pop-Tarts Bowl, which can be disregarded for now.
However, Brad Crawford of 247Sports released a College Football Playoff projection suggesting an exceptionally favorable outcome for Notre Dame, without a home game in the first round. His projection illustrates a scenario where Notre Dame competes against BYU in Provo, a matchup where they would likely be favored. Despite the challenge of traveling to Utah—where they lost unexpectedly in 2004—BYU’s defense presents an opportunity for Notre Dame’s strong offense as the Cougars struggle against the run.
In the second round, they would likely face Miami, making for an ideal opponent, as Miami has had difficulty navigating the ACC this season.
The national semi-final could feature Texas, Indiana, or Georgia. Although Notre Dame might not be favored against Texas or Georgia, these matchups appear more promising than what was expected earlier in the season. Georgia has faced one of the toughest schedules but isn’t performing at the elite level of previous years. Texas possesses a strong defense, yet their only ranked opponent so far has been Georgia, which handed them a defeat.
Crawford’s projection suggests that Notre Dame fans may be overly concerned about needing a home game if they succeed in winning their upcoming matches. Ultimately, the priority for Notre Dame should be securing a No. 5 vs. No. 12 or No. 6 vs. No. 11 matchup, regardless of location.
If Notre Dame can rise in the rankings to achieve a five or six seed while maintaining favorable matchups within the bracket, it would be a substantial advantage for the Fighting Irish’s playoff aspirations.
