It’s clear that the Montreal Canadiens’ season began poorly. Beyond the obvious lack of favorable outcomes, the team found itself among the lowest-ranked in the NHL across several key statistical measures.
This proved frustrating for everyone involved, as the Canadiens were anticipated to progress in their rebuilding efforts. By comparison, October represented a significant step backward from the previous season, raising alarms considering the Canadiens were already struggling in 2023-24.
Fortunately, there is promising news on the horizon for the Canadiens.
Montreal Canadiens October vs. November (5v5)
While wins and goals are vital, during a rebuild, the process is the most crucial aspect. Some losses can still hold value, even if they appear lopsided. For instance, despite an 8-2 defeat to the Seattle Kraken, Martin St-Louis’s squad managed to control both shot share (CF%) and high-danger chances (HDCF%) during 5v5 play.
It’s understandable to overlook the process when the Canadiens surrender points after a high-scoring loss, but the result against the Kraken indicated signs of improvement. Honestly, given their poor performance in October, it would have been hard to do worse.
Nevertheless, the increase in possession numbers from November is encouraging for the long term. To illustrate their progress over the past month, we’ve outlined key statistics below for comparison.
Montreal Canadiens Predictive Statistics
In the table below, CF% represents Corsi For Percentage, indicating the shots a team managed, including those that miss the target. For instance, if the Habs took 53 shots and their opponents had 47, the Canadiens would record a CF% of 53. I prefer to use “shot share” rather than Corsi for simplicity and clarity.
High-danger scoring chances (HDCF%) reflect the percentage of prime scoring opportunities controlled by the team. This is vital since not all shots are equal, with nearly half of NHL goals coming from high-danger areas near the net.
Expected goals share (xGF%) analyzes shot quality to estimate how many goals a team or player is likely to score during a period, considering factors like location, distance, angle, and shot type.
As shown, the statistics from St-Louis’s team in October were dismal. For most of the month, they ranked last in all three categories, but a few strong performances towards the end of the month lifted them from the 32nd position.
This marked the beginning of a positive trend that gained momentum in November. Although data from this period is limited, the overall improvements are both encouraging and significant.
While it’s too early to claim the Canadiens are playoff-bound or that the rebuild is truly advancing, the increases in these puck control metrics are substantial. Moving from 30th to 17th in shot share is a positive development, especially since the Canadiens are close to breaking into the top 10 for both high-danger scoring chances and expected goals in November.
It’s worth mentioning that since St-Louis’s arrival, the Canadiens have struggled with high-danger shot control. Being ranked 11th in the NHL is not only a promising sign but also new ground for the head coach.
Montreal Canadiens Results-Based Statistics
Switching to results-based statistics confirms that improved processes have translated into better outcomes. The Canadiens now sit in the middle tier for goal share, and their team save percentage has shown improvement. While there is still progress to be made on this front, it appears that starter Samuel Montembeault has overcome his rocky start.
Montreal Canadiens Summary
Fans may be tired of hearing about the process, and it’s understandable if they choose to dismiss the aforementioned statistics. However, it’s undeniable that the Habs have showcased a healthier style of play over the past 10 games.
Interestingly, their shooting percentage slightly declined in November, suggesting that the recent gains are not entirely due to shooting luck or exceptional goaltending.
Nonetheless, the Canadiens still have challenges ahead.
It’s more like they’ve finally managed to establish some shelter, no longer having to endure relentless downpours. Given the circumstances, this is a much more favorable situation compared to the early weeks of the season, which felt akin to the team lying helplessly on the ground amid a storm, vulnerable to surrounding predators.
