As a dedicated Michigan fan and alumnus, I’ve seen Hunter Dickinson play a considerable amount of basketball. Before his high-profile transfer to Kansas, Dickinson shone at Ann Arbor, particularly during his standout freshman season when he led the Wolverines to a Big Ten Regular Season Championship, secured a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, and reached the Elite 8. His transfer marked a significant turning point in Juwan Howard’s tenure as the head coach of his alma mater.
Despite facing challenges that may hinder his chances in the modern NBA, Dickinson continues to excel at the college level. He has nearly average a double-double throughout his career, with shooting percentages surpassing 70% from the foul line, 56% from the field, and about 36% from three-point range (albeit on fewer attempts). Standing at 7-foot-1 and weighing over 250 pounds, he poses a consistent matchup problem for opponents.
Interestingly, if Dickinson showcases impressive statistics against Duke on Tuesday, it might indicate that the Blue Devils are executing their game plan effectively.
Strangely, Jon Scheyer’s young team might benefit from allowing Dickinson one-on-one opportunities in the post. He primarily scores by leveraging his strong back-to-the-basket game, using his size to shoot hook shots that are less impacted by smaller defenders. However, even against mismatched defenders, analytics suggest these shots are among the least efficient. Dickinson’s greatest threat comes when opponents are preoccupied with defending him, leading to easier scoring chances through dunks or open three-point looks from his teammates (he averages nearly 2 assists per game, a commendable figure for a center).
Consider Dickinson’s freshman year at Michigan, which was his peak. In the Wolverines’ 23 victories, he shot over 62% from the field, compared to just 49% in their five defeats. He averaged one assist per game in wins but had only two assists total in losses. Notably, his freshman team featured several effective three-point shooters, including four players who shot over 39% from distance, while future NBA star Franz Wagner contributed a solid 34%.
In contrast, Dickinson’s subsequent two seasons at Michigan were disappointing as a team, despite his individual stats improving. During a disappointing 18-14 sophomore season, he shot more in losses compared to wins and averaged almost 1.5 assists fewer in losses. This pattern persisted into his junior year, where he took significantly more shots in losses than in wins. Throughout those two years, Michigan matched the number of regulars making over 39% of their three-point attempts as in Dickinson’s first season, with Dickinson being one of those players during his junior year.
Fast forward to his debut season at Kansas, which also featured impressive individual stats but a team underachieving. Despite averaging over 2.3 assists per game, that figure was notably higher in wins compared to losses. In some of Kansas’ toughest defeats, including losses to BYU and UCF, he managed just one assist per game. Additionally, two games where Dickinson took at least 18 shots were losses, albeit more competitive ones.
Though the stronger supporting players at Kansas contrasted with his last two years in Ann Arbor, a noticeable trend remained: losses for Kansas often involved either excessive shot attempts or markedly fewer assists from Dickinson.
This observation is especially pertinent heading into Tuesday’s game, as Kansas’s current roster resembles more of Dickinson’s less successful Michigan teams than his initial winning season. Starters KJ Adams Jr. and Dajuan Harris are poor shooters—Harris at just 20% from deep and Adams yet to attempt a three this year. Zeke Mayo, who was brought in mainly for his shooting, is only hitting 31% this season, which may explain why he’s been coming off the bench. While David Coit, Rylan Griffen, and AJ Storr are all shooting above 40% from three, their limited minutes suggest that they haven’t fully earned coach Bill Self’s trust.
With limited deep shooting threats around him, Dickinson may not have the same level of spacing he enjoyed in previous years. Duke could exploit this situation to mitigate Dickinson’s passing threat.
In fact, the optimal strategy for the Blue Devils may be to dare Dickinson to outscore them. Khaman Maluach’s length is a challenge that Dickinson may not have faced before, and it will at the very least complicate his preferred post moves. If Duke’s freshman can effectively contest Dickinson’s shots without fouling, the pressure on Kansas may hinge on their star center exceeding his usual performance against one of the most unique post defenders he’s encountered. That’s a formidable challenge, even for someone of his stature.
