From a broader perspective, Alexis Lafrenière’s seven-year contract extension with the Rangers aligns with expectations for former No. 1 overall picks, especially for a player like the Quebec native, who was the clear favorite during his draft year. Typically, these players enter the NHL around 18 and are signed to long-term deals by their team in their early twenties.
Yet, Lafrenière’s journey to this contract was atypical. His early NHL seasons were marked by inconsistency and underwhelming performance. Although he had flashes of brilliance, establishing himself as a reliable offensive player proved challenging, leading him to spend more time in the lower lines or as a healthy scratch than on a scoring line.
In contrast to most top picks who are secured to new deals immediately after their entry-level contracts expire, Lafrenière signed a two-year bridge contract worth under $2.5 million per year—a reflection of his less-than-stellar performance and uncertainty regarding his future in New York.
Even his standout season during 2023-24, where he racked up 57 points, doesn’t exactly align with the expectations of his new contract. Nevertheless, both statistical assessments and observations support the Rangers’ choice to grant the 23-year-old a substantial extension.
This discussion will explore how Lafrenière discovered his potential in New York, why he is poised to validate his contract, and the implications for the Rangers’ salary cap situation.
### Context of Lafrenière’s Initial NHL Seasons
Lafrenière’s entry to the Rangers was anything but typical. The COVID-19 pandemic affected the 2019-20 season and resulted in an unusual setup for the NHL Draft, where the Rangers overcame just 3 percent odds to win the lottery.
Typically, the top overall pick goes to a struggling team in need of rebuilding, providing ample playing time in a low-pressure environment. However, for Lafrenière, joining a roster featuring established forwards like Artemi Panarin, Chris Kreider, and Pavel Buchnevich made earning ice time a challenge.
Being assigned to a third-line role required Lafrenière to play in a manner that didn’t leverage his strengths, and a lack of ice time stunted his development. Struggles with coaching—first under David Quinn and later Gerard Gallant—also hampered his progress. Gallant favored veteran players and limited Lafrenière’s opportunities, arguing that he needed to improve in his position rather than focusing solely on his development.
While Lafrenière shares some responsibility for his early setbacks, the circumstances surrounding him didn’t set the stage for success.
Despite these challenges, signs of Lafrenière’s potential were evident. In his first three seasons, he was the second-highest in even-strength goals on his team, ranking 61st overall in the league despite limited playtime. This suggested that he could excel if given a consistent role on a scoring line.
### Hitting His Stride
The arrival of coach Peter Laviolette for the 2023-24 season changed everything for Lafrenière. Laviolette firmly transitioned him to the right wing and placed him alongside Panarin and Vincent Trocheck, creating a formidable scoring line that played significant minutes.
This trio became one of the most effective lines in the NHL, excelling in both expected and actual goals, a trend that continued into the current season. Over two seasons, Lafrenière has ranked 18th in both goals and points during five-on-five play.
Their effectiveness stems from their ability to exploit cross-ice movements, forcing goalies to shift and creating scoring opportunities. This style highlights Lafrenière’s strengths and aligns well with Panarin’s exceptional playmaking.
By aligning him on the right wing, Lafrenière has benefited from the positioning that allows him to maximize his shooting potential. His left-handed shot means he can easily receive passes while in a scoring position or navigate from his off-wing into offensive setups, facilitating both goal creation and execution.
While this offensive-heavy line has its defensive flaws—of which Lafrenière is sometimes a part—the Rangers coaching staff focuses on enhancing their offensive capabilities instead of solely addressing deficiencies. Although this may result in some goals against, the potential for higher goal-scoring is apparent, and Lafrenière is encouraged to embrace his offensive instincts.
For Lafrenière to meet or exceed the expectations outlined in his contract, he must enhance his offensive production. He has already shown prowess at five-on-five but would now benefit from a more significant role on the power play. However, he faces strong competition amidst a roster that includes a top power-play unit that has been among the league’s best.
At the same time, the significant investment in Lafrenière creates a tighter salary cap situation for the Rangers as they navigate contract renewals for other key players like Igor Shesterkin.
### Moving Forward with Lafrenière and the Rangers
The Rangers will need to manage their budget carefully with Lafrenière’s sizeable extension impacting their cap in the next two seasons while simultaneously locking up other vital players. The balance between their well-compensated wingers—like Lafrenière, Panarin, and Kreider, who together account for a considerable portion of their cap—will also demand attention.
Signing Lafrenière for his prime years positions the team well, with the potential for financial relief when players like Panarin and Kreider’s contracts expire in 2026, paving the way to re-sign or replace key talent more affordably.
In the short term, the Rangers face some cap constraints. However, being in a competitive structure like that of Tampa Bay, Colorado, and Boston indicates a promising future as they begin to solidify their status among top-tier teams.
While the Rangers will need to be strategic in their roster decisions moving forward, the integration of younger players on entry-level deals suggests they have a plan in place. With experienced players ready to make sacrifices for championship aspirations, they avoid the cycle of desperate short-term contracts that has plagued them in the past.
Lafrenière’s long-term deal stands as a strategic investment, equipping the Rangers with a key player during his developmental years while maintaining a manageable cap hit to ensure a bright future.
