On Tuesday, Alabama was positioned at No. 10 in the second College Football Playoff rankings for the 2024 season. In college football, unpredictable events can unfold during games, and being ranked 10th leaves Alabama with limited options. The Crimson Tide is currently in a favorable position, but certain unfavorable scenarios could create anxiety as selection Sunday approaches in December.
To secure a playoff spot, Alabama must win all of its upcoming games. However, even a perfect record doesn’t guarantee their place in the postseason. Several plausible situations could arise that prevent Alabama from qualifying for the SEC Championship game. If they do win out, one might wonder if making it to the conference championship is even worthwhile, especially in the inaugural year of a 12-team playoff format, as it’s unclear how the committee will handle teams that lose their conference title games.
For instance, if Tennessee wins all its games and other expected teams also win, they will likely face the winner of Texas and Texas A&M in Atlanta. Should Georgia prevail against Tennessee, the outcome would hinge on Missouri’s performance in its last three games to determine the SEC Championship matchup. If Missouri secures at least two wins or wins against Arkansas, Alabama would then head to Atlanta. Conversely, if Missouri loses two or more games, LSU would take that spot, potentially claiming a playoff berth and bumping another worthy team out of contention, provided LSU maintains a higher ranking than Army, which currently is poised to claim the AAC Championship.
Outside the SEC, the top five conference champions receive automatic bids, and SMU is on the CFP bubble. If they win the ACC Championship Game against Miami, they will secure their spot, but it raises the question of whether the committee might still choose to send Miami to the playoffs. The Big 12 could see a similar situation if BYU loses its title game to a team like Colorado, leading to Colorado taking the bid while BYU, with only one regular-season loss, is left out.
An under-discussed scenario involves Georgia potentially defeating Tennessee this weekend, which would likely propel Georgia (currently ranked 12th) up the rankings and drop Tennessee (currently 7th). Since Tennessee has a head-to-head victory over Alabama, it could also lead to Alabama dropping a spot. If Georgia wins, there would be significant debate over the rankings of Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama, and Ole Miss, given their respective head-to-head results. The committee would face a complex situation.
- Ultimately, Alabama must not only win all its games but also hope for minimal chaos in the rankings. Currently sitting at No. 10, the Crimson Tide cannot afford for other teams to leapfrog them. Kalen DeBoer is doing everything possible to keep Alabama in contention for a playoff spot, but it seems that he and the team are primarily focused on the next game ahead, rather than any other considerations.
