The New York Rangers appeared to make progress in recent games, generating more offense and spending less time on defense. This improvement contributed to a three-game winning streak earlier in the week.
However, everything changed on Thursday night against the Calgary Flames, as they allowed a season-high 49 shots on goal and were significantly out-attempted 90-53, resulting in a 3-2 loss on the road.
Examining the underlying statistics reveals just how poor this performance was for the Rangers. They allowed 5.47 expected goals (xG), which ranks as the second-highest total they’ve conceded this season; the only higher mark was an 8.97 xG allowed in a 5-3 loss to the Washington Capitals on October 29. Conversely, the Rangers could only muster 2.42 xG, giving them just a 30.66 percent share overall.
The Rangers’ worst period was the first, where they recorded an xG of only 0.23 compared to Calgary’s 1.45, giving the Flames an 86.2 percent share. Calgary had the first two power plays but only generated 0.41 xG during that time. It was evident that the home team started the game stronger.
“They were better than us in the first,” noted Peter Laviolette after the game, a sentiment anyone watching the match would agree with.
The Rangers rebounded in the second period, not only improving their underlying stats but also scoring. After falling behind 2-0, they netted two goals in just 16 seconds to tie the game late in that frame. They actually recorded more expected goals than the Flames during this period, with 1.28 compared to Calgary’s 1.16.
However, the final period mirrored the first. The Rangers began the third well, hoping to build on their momentum from the second and even received their sole power play opportunity just over a minute in. But they couldn’t maintain that throughout the period, resulting in an xG of 2.85 to 0.91 in favor of Calgary. Yet these figures don’t capture the full story; deeper analysis shows the Rangers fared better in some aspects.
While the Rangers had only one power play opportunity, the Flames had five, making the statistics seem more unfavorable for New York. Calgary’s xG was inflated by the man advantage, with 0.84 of their 5.47 xG coming from power plays, while the Rangers managed just 0.24 from theirs. At even strength, the 2.69-1.96 edge for Calgary was much narrower.
Interestingly, the total of 2.69 xG at five-on-five and 0.84 on the power play doesn’t add up to Calgary’s overall 5.47 xG. The discrepancy is attributed to the Flames’ good chances late in the game when the Rangers pulled goalie Igor Shesterkin for an extra attacker, which accounted for 1.91 xG in just over two minutes of play. This skews the total xG storyline.
Other metrics tell a different story; the Rangers had more high-danger chances overall (15-11) and were narrowly edged in scoring chances (32-29) by the Flames. In five-on-five situations, the Rangers led 26-24 in scoring chances, possibly because the Flames’ shots primarily came from less threatening areas, as shown in their heat map.
The Rangers didn’t perform as well as in their previous games, a point Laviolette acknowledged after the match.
“I think we played really good games prior to this. We had a bad first period tonight and it ended up costing us,” he stated.
In their last four outings, New York had outperformed their opponents in expected goals, which was not the case against the Flames. Nonetheless, despite the significant xG differential, the Rangers were competitive at even strength, and the quality of chances was relatively balanced, if not slightly in their favor.
While this game was disappointing for the team, there are reasons to think it might be an isolated incident rather than the start of a worrying trend moving forward.
