Welcome back to another edition of NHL Predictions. Here at Last Word on Hockey, our writers analyze the games daily, focusing on key matchups, narratives, and statistics to make informed predictions about how they may unfold. In this installment, we’ll be looking at the New York Islanders facing off against the Boston Bruins. Be sure to check back for more NHL Predictions as our team continues this series throughout the 2024-25 season.
This game features two Eastern Conference rivals that find themselves in similar standings as the season reaches its quarter mark. The Islanders currently sit in fifth place in the Metropolitan Division with an 8-9-5 record over 22 games. Meanwhile, the Bruins are also fifth in the Atlantic Division, holding a 10-10-3 record after 23 games. This matchup marks the first of three encounters between the teams this season, taking place tonight at UBS Arena on Long Island. Last season, the Bruins won the series 2-1 over the Islanders.
**The Islanders’ Situation**
The Islanders continue to struggle with maintaining leads in the third period, as evidenced by their recent 4-2 loss to the Detroit Red Wings. For the second time in four days, the Red Wings overcame a third-period deficit to win. The Islanders’ offense has faltered after a brief resurgence, scoring two goals or fewer in three of their last four games, currently ranking 29th in the league with an average of 2.45 goals per game. Their power play remains a significant issue, failing to convert on three opportunities in the last match, resulting in a league-worst success rate of 12.7%. The team received some encouraging news with Anthony Duclair, who has only played five games, beginning to skate independently, indicating a possible return soon, which could provide an offensive boost.
On the defensive end, the Islanders have performed well for the first two periods, outscoring opponents 33-26. However, they have been outscored 37-21 in the third period and overtime, with 33 goals allowed in the third— the highest in the NHL. This defensive lapse has cost them several leads and resulted in losses in winnable games. Fortunately, they still rank 11th in goals allowed at 2.86 per game, thanks in large part to Ilya Sorokin’s strong goaltending, evidenced by his 5-5-3 record, .917 save percentage, and 2.52 goals-against average. He is confirmed to start tonight.
**The Bruins’ Situation**
A major storyline for the Bruins is the dismissal of head coach Jim Montgomery after a disappointing 8-9-3 start to the season. Joe Sacco has stepped in as interim head coach, securing two wins in three games on the bench. The Bruins’ offense is currently the weakest in the league, averaging 2.32 goals per game, and they were blanked in their latest game against the Vancouver Canucks. Veteran players David Pastrnak and Brad Marchand lead the team offensively, with Pastrnak amassing 19 points and Marchand contributing 15 in 23 games. These players are crucial for the team’s scoring potential.
Defensively, the Bruins have also faced challenges, ranking 20th in goals against with an average of 3.18 per game. There is, however, some optimism as they have not allowed more than three goals in any of the last three games under their new coach and have limited high-danger chances effectively, only giving up 31 such shots— the third-lowest total in the league.
The Bruins are also hoping to see improved performances from their goaltending, particularly from Jeremy Swayman, who recently signed an eight-year, $66 million contract. Swayman has struggled with a 6-8-2 record, .888 save percentage, and 3.16 goals against average. With this being the second game of a back-to-back for Boston, the Islanders will face Joonas Korpisalo, who has shown better form with a 4-2-1 record, .911 save percentage, and 2.38 goals against average.
**Prediction**
Given the lack of offensive output from both teams, a low-scoring game is anticipated. The goalies’ performances should further influence this outcome. As both teams vie for wild card positions, securing these two points adds extra significance to the matchup. The Bruins’ travel from Boston to Long Island for a back-to-back may tilt the advantage toward the Islanders, who are looking to break out of their recent slump.
**Prediction: Islanders win 3-2**
**Prop Bets**
To conclude our NHL predictions, here are some prop bets. The odds for this game are fairly even, so consider taking the Islanders’ money line at -115. With both teams struggling offensively, the over/under is set at 5.5; based on this analysis, it’s advisable to take the under at -102. For anytime goal scorers, bet on Anders Lee for the Islanders at +210, as he just ended a four-game pointless streak and has been performing well on the top line. For the Bruins, David Pastrnak at +125 is a good option, given that if they score, he’s likely to be involved.
