Welcome back to our NHL Predictions feature. Each day, the team at Last Word on Hockey analyzes the games, providing detailed insights on matchups, narratives, and statistics, culminating in predictions about how the games might unfold. In this edition, we’re focusing on the New York Islanders facing the Montreal Canadiens. Remember to check out more NHL Predictions as our writers continue this series throughout the 2024-25 season.
**NHL Predictions**
**New York Islanders vs. Montreal Canadiens**
**Time: 7:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST)**
This matchup showcases two Eastern Conference rivals struggling near the bottom of their divisions. The Islanders are currently seventh in the Metropolitan Division, holding a record of 9-10-6 after 25 games, while the Canadiens are at the bottom of the Atlantic Division with an 8-13-3 record through 24 games. In the playoff race, the Islanders have a slight edge, trailing the final wild card spot by only three points, compared to Montreal’s eight-point deficit. This is their second of three meetings this season; the first encounter on October 29 saw the Islanders take a 4-3 shootout victory on Long Island. Tonight, the game will take place at the Bell Centre in Montreal.
**The Islanders’ Situation**
The Islanders recently ended a three-game losing streak with a 3-0 victory over the Buffalo Sabres. They successfully maintained their lead in that game after previously struggling to do so. Additionally, Jean-Gabriel Pageau has returned to practice after missing the last two games, which is promising for the team. In his absence, Simon Holmström stepped up on the first line, scoring two goals in each of those games. The Islanders’ offense has been a concern, ranking 27th in the league with an average of 2.56 goals per game. There’s no new update on Anthony Duclair, who is still rehabilitating. His return could strengthen the team’s offense and improve a power play that currently ranks last with a success rate of just 12.9%.
In their last game, the Islanders opted to use 11 forwards and seven defensemen due to Scott Mayfield sustaining an injury. Head coach Patrick Roy made this decision for added safety on a back-to-back matchup, but he confirmed a return to a more standard lineup for this game. Furthermore, the news on the defensive front is positive, as Adam Pelech has started skating independently, which should enhance the Islanders’ defense, which ranks 12th in goals against with 2.96 per game. Goaltender Ilya Sorokin, who secured the shutout in their last game, has been solid with a record of 6-6-3, a .915 save percentage, and allowing 2.52 goals per game. With Semyon Varlamov listed as day-to-day, Sorokin is expected to start.
**The Canadiens’ Situation**
The Canadiens are struggling, entering this matchup with two consecutive losses and having lost four of their last five games. Their offense is ranked 21st in the league, averaging 2.83 goals per game. Led by young stars, Nick Suzuki (25) has been impressive this season with 24 points in 24 games, closely followed by Cole Caufield (23), who has 22 points, including 16 goals. After these two players, the next highest point-getters are defensemen.
Defensive issues are a key factor in the Canadiens’ struggles, as they rank last in goals allowed, giving up 3.83 per game. Although they don’t allow a large number of shots, the quality of the shots they concede is concerning, as Montreal has allowed the second-most high-danger shots in the league. Their goaltending situation hasn’t helped either; starter Sam Montembeault has an adequate record of 6-10-2 with a .897 save percentage and a 3.12 goals against, while backup Cayden Primeau has struggled significantly.
**Prediction**
The Islanders are coming off a win and are facing the weakest team in the Eastern Conference, which puts them in a favorable position to gain momentum. However, history suggests challenges, as the Islanders have lost their last three games at the Bell Centre. Despite these factors, we believe the Islanders will secure a close victory, possibly with an empty-netter at the end.
**Prediction: Islanders win 4-2**
**Prop Bets**
Fanduel lists the Islanders as favorites for this matchup. We recommend betting on them to win on the money line at -146, as the puck line of -1.5 is too risky. The over/under is set at 5.5; we suggest taking the over at -134, as Montreal tends to concede goals, but they also have the capability to score. The Islanders typically maintain a solid defensive front, but late-game situations can be unpredictable. For anytime goal scorers, consider Simon Holmström for the Islanders, who has been in good form on the top line. For Montreal, Cole Caufield is a strong candidate given his scoring ability this season.
