In the last quarter of 2024, the New York Rangers made two significant moves that are likely to be discussed for a long time.
In October, they signed Alexis Lafreniere, the first overall pick in the 2020 draft, to a seven-year, $52.15 million contract. At that time, he had recorded 63 points (32 goals, 31 assists) over his previous 82 games, including 14 playoff matches. However, in his last 37 games, he has managed only 18 points.
Then, in December, the Rangers traded Kaapo Kakko, who was the second overall pick in the 2019 draft and struggling to find his form, to the Seattle Kraken for two draft picks and defenseman Will Borgen. Kakko started performing well soon after the trade, tallying 10 points in his first 13 games with Seattle.
Although Lafreniere has significantly improved defensively in the last month, he has only four points in his last 13 games, which raises concerns about his $7.5 million salary as a top-line winger. The situation appears to stem from the fact that Kakko and his teammates are experiencing a shooting streak, while Lafreniere and his line are not.
According to Natural Stat Trick, since December 18, Lafreniere ranks 60th out of 467 forwards for expected goals generated per hour, indicating his chance creation is improving. In contrast, Kakko, who is ranked 389th, has only generated a third of what Lafreniere has produced, even though both players have been placed on their teams’ top lines.
Following the trade, Kakko’s expected goals and shots per hour have decreased compared to his performance with the Rangers, yet his shooting percentage has surprisingly increased to 20% across all situations with the Kraken.
A deeper look into the statistics of the line featuring Panarin, Trocheck, and Lafreniere reveals that they were among the best at creating offense last season. However, they were also allowing a significant number of chances against until mid-December, when Kakko was traded. Since the trade, this line has drastically improved defensively without sacrificing offensive output, reducing high-danger chances against to 9.24 per hour while increasing their chance creation by 1.65 more per hour in the 13 games since.
Using MoneyPuck’s line comparison, the Rangers’ top line ranks in the upper half of the league among the 33 lines with at least 200 minutes played this season in both expected goals for and expected goals against. They have outscored their opponents 7-2 over the last 13 games despite their on-ice shooting percentage being only 7.9%.
Overall, the data favor Lafreniere and his linemates, while Kakko’s statistics show less promise. However, in a league where small margins matter, the key for both players will be translating their chances into goals. Kakko has been more successful in doing so over the past month.
